Craps For Serious Craps Players Forums Dice Talk Understanding Streaks in Craps

This topic contains 3 replies, has 4 voices, and was last updated by  Matveyhok 8 months, 4 weeks ago.

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  • #356

    Bill
    Keymaster

    We had a player report to us that the game rolled seven 40% of the time.

    As far as 40% sevens, that seem like a significant streak of sevens, how long did it last? Streaks are very common in craps. It is part of the game. He had a cold table (unless all the sevens were on the comeout). No sevens is a hot table.

    I understand that you need a sample set of 420,000 rolls to quiet down the effects of streaks and approach natural odds for all rolls. We have addressed this issue many times and we now even record rolls (with permission) Our results show that over many millions of rolls seven comes up exactly 1/6 of the time.

    Randomness, streaks of random length at random times, is what gives craps its appeal to us “rational” humans. In craps patterns happen all the time, and we recognize them. Unfortunately, the existence of an established pattern in craps gives us absolutely no information on what will happen next.

    Take a look at this lady’s experience, Pat got 154 rolls before a seven out. http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/crunching-the-numbers-on-a-craps-record-703/. This was a 1 in 5 billion chance. She might have sevened out at any time, and she did (after 154 successful rolls).

    I once met a guy at Harrah’s who wrote down every roll (both dice). If he was gaining some sort of edge on the house, the house would have made him stop.

    My point is that streaks happen, at random times for random numbers of rolls. If you have fun betting with streaks, do it. If you have fun betting against them, I recommend you do it.

    #405

    CharlieG
    Participant

    The odds are quite simple to figure out with basic math … You have two 6 sided dice with an outcome of 36 combinations. That would be 6×6, recognizing each dice as its own operative. If one rolls those dice approx 36 times (±), 7 comes 6 times. Im assuming that’s where your getting your 1/6 statistics ? Is this also implying that the 7 will come in approx 6 rolls?

    #409

    Max
    Participant

    The law of large numbers was first proved by the Swiss mathematician Jakob Bernoulli in 1713.

    7 is a combination of 1_6, 2_5, 3_4, 4_3, 5_2, 6_1, 6 possibilities out of 36 or 6/36 which in turn is 1/6.

    If you apply the law of large numbers, 7 WILL come out every 6 times (in average) when the dice are thrown thousands of times.

    Hope this helps….

    #1950

    Matveyhok
    Participant

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